According to KGI Securities analyst, an analyst renowned for predicting Apple unannounced plans, Apple’s iPad will not sell as strong as it did in the past years, saying shipments will decline by 30% this year. Apple is expected to launch its rumoured 12.9-inch iPad Pro (iPad Plus or whatever Apple plans to call it) this year. Sadly, the larger iPad will not be able to help boost iPad sales.
In a note to investors obtained by 9to5Mac, Kuo writes:
iPad shipments to plunge over 50% QoQ in 1Q15F & 2Q15F outlook dim; bodes ill for sales & earnings of suppliers through 1H15F. We forecast iPad shipments will decline 52.7% QoQ in 1Q15 to 10.1mn units, and continue to lose momentum in 2Q15F, dropping another 30-40% QoQ to 7-8mn units. 1H15F shipments around 18mn units, down 40% YoY; 2015F to struggle to top 45mn units, down 30% YoY. We forecast iPad shipments of 18mn units in 1H15… Based on seasonal patterns (shipments rise 10-20% HoH in 2H), we project full-year shipments will struggle to top 45mn units, likely marking a 30% decline.
Contribution to shipments of 12.9-inch debut limited; retail promotion of existing models may not work well. While we are confident a new 12.9-inch iPad model can create improved user experience with enhanced productivity in the long term, we don’t anticipate it will contribute meaningfully to shipments momentum anytime soon, since its commercialization may fall behind expectations, leaving limited time for shipping… Moreover, we are conservative on promotion, likely executed by Apple (US) or retailers, of existing products due to the lack of innovative applications.
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